Author: Khakimov, Boburbek Akmaljon ugli

Annotation: This study examines the relationship between food production dynamics and consumer price inflation in Uzbekistan over the period January 2019 to December 2020 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach. Monthly data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Food Production Index (FPI), obtained from the Uzbekistan Statistics Agency (UzStat), are employed to evaluate both short-run and potential long-run linkages between the two variables. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests indicate that food production is non-stationary, necessitating differencing and motivating the use of ARDL, which is well suited for variables integrated of mixed orders. Model estimation shows that the contemporaneous change in food production (x_lag0) exerts a statistically significant short-run effect on CPI, suggesting that monthly fluctuations in food supply conditions translate rapidly into observed consumer prices. This finding aligns with the structural characteristics of Uzbekistan’s food markets, where supply constraints and seasonal production patterns can generate immediate pricing responses. While evidence for long-run cointegration is limited in this short sample, the results underscore the importance of monitoring short-term shifts in domestic food production as a key determinant of near-term inflation dynamics. The study contributes timely empirical insight for policymakers concerned with food security, price stability, and the design of supply-side interventions.

Keywords: ARDL model, food production, consumer prices, inflation dynamics, time-series analysis, short-run effects, non-stationary variables, seasonal variation.

Pages in journal: 348 - 362